After a dovish performance from the US Federal Reserve yesterday, investors have been waiting to see what the Bank of England thinks about the UK economy. Economists were expecting the bank to signal that it will raise interest rates, something that would help to extend the current Pound Sterling rally. However, the bank has disappointed by announcing that it will not raise interest rates until inflation is under control and has risen considerably.

The Pound has strengthened in 2021 after the bank confirmed that it won’t take interest rates into negative territory and the assumption now was for the bank to raise them and support the pound.

Bank remains cautious

However, while economic recovery and the vaccination programme have offered a positive outlook, the bank chose to maintain the current pace of quantitative easing (£4.4bn weekly) and reach its inflation target. The bank said that "The Committee does not intend to tighten monetary policy at least until there is clear evidence that significant progress has been made in eliminating spare capacity and achieving the 2.0% inflation target.” After the employment fell during the pandemic the Bank expects it to recover so that rising wages start pushing inflation higher. The bank’s decision reflects a more cautious stance as it prefers to wait and see how things develop and whether inflation rises above 2.0% as employment recovers closer to pre-pandemic levels.

The pound fell as investors and traders were expecting a more hawkish tone from the bank.

Bank expectations

The Bank noted that recovery from April 2022 onwards will slow down due to the March Budget which will create a medium-term fiscal tightening. They stated that there is little hope that CPI inflation will rise above the target at the end of this year. According to Samuel Tombs, Chief U.K. Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics: "The MPC chose not to push back against the recent rise in rate expectations and gilt yields. This was never likely, given that the first rate hike isn’t fully priced-in by markets until Q1 2023; the Committee can’t make credible commitments that extend so far into the future.” Tombs added that interest rates will be raised soon as long as the markets recover. More generally, though, the Bank of England appeared to be less gloomy about unemployment and that a more resilient than expected economy will help improve the employment landscape.

BoE: signs of economic recovery

While the Bank of England’s MPC voted 9-0 to leave interest rates and QE unchanged, there are several signs that point that the economy is improving. Since the MPC’s previous meeting, the near-term economic activity had been positive. The issue now is whether companies and households will increase their spending once the lockdown ends or whether they’ll be cautious. Minutes of the meeting said that Rishi Sunak’s decision to extend the furlough until the end of September has also helped to change the outlook for the unemployment rate.

Indeed, Hugh Gimber, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, highlighted that the economic outlook has improved as “the Monetary Policy Committee is feeling a little more comfortable about the prospects for the economy than at its last meeting six weeks ago. The latest budget confirmed that government lifelines for the labour market will continue, the vaccine rollout is progressing at pace, and a gargantuan stimulus package across the Atlantic should have positive spillover effects across the globe. Against this backdrop, the UK economy is poised for a strong rebound this year.”

Are you Transferring Funds Abroad?

If you are transferring funds overseas, contacting a currency specialist could save you time and money. Whether you are sending money to family or paying your employees abroad, get in touch with Universal Partners FX to find out how much you can save in your international money transfers. Universal Partners FX can provide invaluable help on efficient risk management and tailored solutions to your personal or business’ transfer needs.

The pound strengthened against the euro, due to positive market sentiment as a result of the intense and ongoing vaccination rollout programme. Goldman Sachs has speculated that the pound could even rise further against the euro.

Rishi Sunak’s Budget announcement boosts sentiment

Following the budget announcement, the Wall Street investment bank told its clients to trade in Sterling as the UK economy is expected to grow in the coming months.  UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s budget announcement last Wednesday revealed spending and taxation plans that were better than expected. Sunak announced that an additional £65 billion will be provided for spending, grants and tax breaks with the total additional spending and benefits reaching £352 billion. "The UK economy is well-positioned for the coming recovery," Goldman Sachs’ Zach Pandl said. "The support program laid out by the government surprised consensus expectations to the upside, and included a number of economic incentives aimed at medium-term investment." Most economists believe that supporting the economy generously during the covid crisis will help the economy grow stronger faster and avoid any long-term negative effects.  

Vaccination programme also offers support to pound

Goldman Sachs’ economist Pandl also noted that the UK’s vaccination programme has helped the economy. He said: "Solid household and business balance sheets should soon translate into robust growth, as the UK’s strategy of prioritising getting more people vaccinated with a single dose appears to be paying dividends. We are therefore keeping open the short EUR/GBP component of our long GBP/CHF cross trade.”

Britain has outperformed on its vaccination programme, especially when compared to other European countries, with more than 21 million people having received the first dose of a Covid-19 vaccine.

UK business confidence hits 12-month high

The UK’s fast vaccination programme has also had a positive effect on businesses’ confidence. According to the latest Business Trends report from accountancy and business advisory firm BDO LLP, service sector confidence jumped in February to its highest level since the pandemic began.

BDO’s Services Optimism Index rose to 94.13 in February from 86.60 in January, back towards the long-term average of 100. This is the highest reading in 12 months for the survey, which covers a a wide range of industries from retail and hospitality to professional services.

Also, according to polling firm YouGov, British consumer confidence has risen to its highest level since the coronavirus pandemic started, according to polling firm YouGov. YouGov reported that  consumer confidence rose to 105.4, driven by expectations for house prices, business activity, and household finances over 2022.

The governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, has also expressed optimism about the economy but also cautioned for unrealistic expectations, as life will not return to pre-Covid levels. He noted that there is a “growing sense” of economic optimism building. He said that Covid has hurt demand and supply which some of the structural changes in the last year will not really change.

Bailey said: “The best we can say is that how the output gap develops in the recovery from Covid will depend on the net effect of the two [demand and supply], both of which will need to move by more than in normal recoveries. There is another element to this part of the story which is hard to assess at present, namely to what extent the more structural changes we have seen during the Covid crisis will persist, and what effect they will have on the recovery? In general, however, economists remain optimistic and the pounds recent surge owes a lot to the government’s successful vaccination programme.


Are you Transferring Funds Abroad?

If you are transferring funds overseas, contacting a currency specialist could save you time and money. Whether you are sending money to family or paying your employees abroad, get in touch with Universal Partners FX to find out how much you can save in your international money transfers. Universal Partners FX can provide invaluable help on efficient risk management and tailored solutions to your personal or business’ transfer needs.

The UK’s successful vaccination rollout programme, along with the BoE’s decision not to lower interest rates, have boosted market sentiment about the UK’s speedy economic recovery and pushed the pound higher. The pound is trading almost close to a nine-month high against the euro, and at a 33-month high against the dollar. It is almost getting closer to its highest levels in over three years.

Rabobank’s Jane Foley said: “GBP bulls have been flexing their muscles since the start of the year based on relief about the EU/UK trade deal and on hopes that the relatively rapid vaccine roll-out programme will lead to a fairly fast economic recovery this year.”

Weaker dollar

The pound’s strength is a result of it capitalising on the US dollar’s losses. The prospect of a major new US stimulus package has weakened the dollar, which continued to fall lower after last week’s disappointing US payrolls report. The wider increased confidence has turned investors away from the safe haven dollar and towards riskier assets.

JP Morgan explained that "The broader USD continues to trade with a much softer tone, drivers seem to be the relentless CNH bid into Chinese New Year and the fact that US yields backed aggressively off key levels and have now calmed down." According to JPMorgan, the USD selling by Chinese traders has also push the dollar lower, a move that is highlighting the importance of the Chinese Yuan in broader market movements.

The past three days’ weakness of the dollar shows that the recent dollar rally has come to an end and that the trend of depreciation has come back into play. JP Morgan said: "We added to our modest sterling longs yesterday via GBP/USD and look for this move to keep going at least until the end of the week (Chinese New Year on Friday).”

Quick vaccinations and market optimism

The UK economy might experience its troubles, but the swift pace of vaccinations suggests that economic recovery will be stronger and faster. The vaccination programme will soon impact health outcomes and boost the Bank of England’s positive outlook. If the Bank shows further optimism and investors are upbeat about economic prospects, then the pound will rise higher.

The general positive market sentiment has helped the pound, as it has become linked to risk appetite during the crisis.

With downside risks for Sterling expected and priced in, analysts see further potential for the pound as the vaccination rollout continues strong. As NatWest Markets analysts said, a "quicker pace of vaccine roll-out will likely lend support to Sterling.” However, they expect any pound increases to be short-lived, as the UK economy struggles post-Brexit.

The Bank of England has said that a strong economic rebound is possible once the lockdown restrictions are lifted and consumers start spending again.

Are you Transferring Funds Abroad?

If you are transferring funds overseas, contacting a currency specialist could save you time and money. Whether you are sending money to family or paying your employees abroad, get in touch with Universal Partners FX to find out how much you can save in your international money transfers. Universal Partners FX can provide invaluable help on efficient risk management and tailored solutions to your personal or business’ transfer needs.

The British Pound has risen following comments by the Bank of England's Governor Andrew Bailey that the rate will not be cut to 0% or below in the coming weeks. With the ongoing vaccine rollout and positive market sentiment about a quick economic recovery, the Bank appears to be willing to wait and see how the UK economy fairs before taking interest rates into negative territory.

Vaccine rollout

The government has promised to vaccinate 15 million people in the top four priority groups over the next five weeks and 17 million more in the five remaining groups by spring. According to the government’s immunisation plan, fifty special vaccination centres will support hospitals and doctors to provide 2 million jabs a week by the end of January.

The inoculation plan was unveiled on Monday as the NHS announced that 866,000 people in England were vaccinated the first week of January. On Monday, seven national vaccination centres opened in England, as well as 200 hospital sites and many GP centres. 50 more special centres will open by the end of the month. Many GPs believe that the 2m-a-week target can be achieved, despite MPs’ complaints in the parliament that the supply was chaotic.

More Vaccinations, Stronger Pound

The more people are vaccinated, the sooner the pandemic will be controlled, and the economy will recover. If everyone is strong and healthy, then the body of the economy and the country will also be strong and healthy. This will ensure a robust economy and will affect whether the Bank of England changes interest rates and its quantitative easing programme. If the BoE chose to lower interest rates, this would have been with the aim of stimulating lending and injecting a flow of money into the economy during the lockdown. However, such drastic measures would have pushed the pound lower. 

The governor of the BoE highlighted that there were too many concerns about negative interest rates, and that members of the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee debated their possible benefits. He has also warned that negative interest rates may hurt economic recovery and he appeared to be against such a move followed by such countries as Sweden, Denmark and Japan. He said: there are “a lot of issues” when considering using negative interest rates as a fiscal tool: “At first glance they are counter-intuitive.” He added: “First of all, no country has really used negative interest rates at the retail end of the market.”

There is, however, growing speculation after the recent comments by Silvana Tenreyro, a member of the Bank’s rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee, that using negative rates is a possibility and can be done without depriving the banking system. Interest rates have been at a historic low of 0.1% since last March in an attempt to protect the economy from the pandemic. If the possibility of negative interest rates is slowly reduced in the coming weeks, the pound is expected to get a further boost.

Are you Transferring Funds Abroad?

If you are transferring funds overseas, contacting a currency specialist could save you time and money. Whether you are sending money to family or paying your employees abroad, get in touch with Universal Partners FX to find out how much you can save in your international money transfers. Universal Partners FX can provide invaluable help on efficient risk management and tailored solutions to your personal or business’ transfer needs.

The possibility of the Bank of England pushing interest rates into negative territory has been hinted at by a member of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee. If interest rates go lower, it is expected that the pound will be negatively impacted in the next few months. The decision to use negative interest rates is considered by the bank as positive in regard to offering further support to a struggling economy.

MPC member Silvana Tenreyro said in an online speech that negative interest rates will boost UK growth and inflation. "Cutting Bank Rate to its record low of 0.1% has helped loosen lending conditions relative to the counterfactual (of no policy change), and I believe further cuts would continue to provide stimulus," Tenreyro noted. Tenreyro said the Bank of England has been in contact with financial services firms discussing the potential impact of negative interest rates. She said: "Once the Bank is satisfied that negative rates are feasible, then the MPC would face a separate decision over whether they are the optimal tool to use to meet the inflation target given circumstances at the time."

How has the pound performed in 2021?

The pound has not enjoyed a good start to the new year, as it dropped against the euro and the dollar. The fact that the UK and EU reached an agreement on Christmas Eve has not made the situation better either, despite the hopes of some economists. Additionally, they are increasing concerns about the economy due to the stricter lockdowns. This has raised expectations of a further interest rate cut by the BoE.

The possibility of lower interest rates will also make UK money markets less attractive, turning investors away from the pound and towards other investments.

What do analysts and traders say?

Analysts expect that the upcoming Bank of England meeting on 4th February will garner a lot of attention, and as we get closer to it there will be growing speculation on the possibility of an interest rate cut.  

The pandemic has not helped either, as many economists believe that it has dampened sentiment towards Sterling and resulted in concerns about a slower economic recovery and a more cautious Bank of England. At the same time, other analysts disagree and do not expect an interest rate cut this February. Robert Wood, UK Economist at Bank of America said: "We do not expect the BoE to cut Bank Rate in February. Banks do not seem ready and some rate setters argue negative rates could be counterproductive when GDP is falling.” If this happens then the pound may rise.

With the pandemic and ongoing vaccinations, it is not yet clear how the UK economy will fair. Nonetheless, the UK government is committed to delivering CovidD-19 vaccines to the most vulnerable categories by mid-February. If everything goes as planned, and people are successfully vaccinated, then the BoE might reassess its plans and reconsider whether cutting interest rates is the best possible solution. If the economy shows signs of recovery, then the pound will respond favourably.

Are you Transferring Funds Abroad?

If you are transferring funds overseas, contacting a currency specialist could save you time and money. Whether you are sending money to family or paying your employees abroad, get in touch with Universal Partners FX to find out how much you can save in your international money transfers. Universal Partners FX can provide invaluable help on efficient risk management and tailored solutions to your personal or business’ transfer needs.

Sterling climbed against the dollar on Monday after the EU and UK announced that they will “go the extra mile” and continue with Brexit negotiations. 

After last week, when the pound fell due to concerns over a no-deal Brexit, this week the pound rose reversing some of its losses. The Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen agreed during a “constructive” call on Sunday to “go the extra mile” in order to secure a trade deal for the UK. With no deadline for negotiations, British officials have said that negotiations could continue until Christmas. 

What do analysts say?

Whatever happens to the pound is going to have an impact on Thursday’s Bank of England meeting which is expected to remain on hold. Analysts believe that if markets are worried and the pound falls on the prospect of a no deal, then the BoE might increase its QE purchases within a short period of time. Nonetheless, pound volatility as we near the end of 2020 is to be expected. 

Goldman Sachs has predicted that the pound will rise if there is progress towards a deal or a no-deal Brexit is avoided. Barclays analysts explained that there will be risks to the pound until an agreement is reached. As the Financial Times reported, some analysts have changed their mind, quoting Gregory Perdon, co-chief investment officer at Arbuthnot Latham, who had “second thoughts” about the pound rising, but he reiterated his hopes for a deal as  “both parties are probably better off economically with a deal.” “Let’s hope rationality wins in this instance,” he added. 

Others more pessimistic, have warned that the pound’s gains might be short-lived, as both the UK and EU have failed to reach a deal repeatedly in the past.

Talking to Reuters, Junichi Ishikawa, senior foreign exchange strategist at IG Securities said: “This is a temporary move higher in the pound, but it is still not clear that a no-deal scenario can be avoided.”

Whether there is a deal or no deal, some investors feel that the pound could still move sharply.

What’s next?

The UK left the European Union on 31 January 2020, but the ongoing negotiations between the UK and EU officials are focussing on securing and negotiating a deal about the rules that will determine and define the kind of relationship the two parties will have post-Brexit. Michel Barnier has commented that Boris Johnson has made a mistake for hoping to negotiate an agreement within only 11 months.

The two sides have until 31 December 2020 to agree a trade deal and, if there is a deal, border checks and taxes will be introduced. The transition period ends on 31 December, and tariffs and quotas will be introduced in the event of a no deal.

A joint UK-EU statement stated that “despite the fact that deadlines have been missed over and over we think it is responsible at this point to go the extra mile."

Are you Transferring Funds Abroad?

With the ongoing Brexit negotiations and unexpected volatility, contacting a currency specialist could save you time and money. If you are sending your family members money, get in touch with Universal Partners FX to find out how much you can save in your international money transfers. Universal Partners FX can provide invaluable help on efficient risk management and tailored solutions to your personal transfer needs.

The pound was pulled from different directions yesterday, as on the one hand, the Bank of England hinting at negative interest rates pushed it lower, and on the other hand, positive Brexit news helped lift it.

The pound fell after the Bank of England said that it is considering how to use negative interest rates and it will discuss with regulators how to efficiently implement them. The pound dropped sharply after the announcement.

As quoted on Bloomberg, Valentin Marinov, head of foreign exchange research and strategy at Credit Agricole SA, said: “Negative rates are the nuclear option. It could ultimately push the pound into uncharted territory of losing whatever is left of its rate advantage.”

A Brexit Trade Deal is Still Possible

Despite the negative news, there was a glimpse of positivity on Thursday after the EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that she remains "convinced" that an EU-UK trade deal is still possible, which helped the pound recover. Von der Leyen, speaking to the Financial Times, said: "I am still convinced it can be done. It is better not to have this distraction questioning an existing international agreement that we have, but to focus on getting this deal done, this agreement done - and time is short." Another EU diplomat said that "we should not overreact... We will continue negotiations because there are two separate tracks: one is the one which the UK has decided to violate, and the other is the future relationship."

If markets maintain a similar view that a trade deal is possible then the pound will be supported.

Bank of England’s Negative Interest Rate Surprise

After the Bank unexpectedly said that it was considering the possibility to cut interest rates to 0% or below in the coming months, to help support the economy, the pound fell.  There have never been any negative interest rates before in the UK and if the Bank moves ahead with changing the rates to record lows, this could really shake the financial system, especially due to the UK’s current account deficit. As Pound Sterling Live noted, this could leave “the UK's financial system, and Pound Sterling in particular, exposed to capital withdrawals from foreign investors.”

The shocking revelation was found within the Bank’s minutes to the meeting where it stated that it would start a "structured engagement" with the Prudential Regulation Authority in order to potentially cut interest rates to negative.

Senior market analyst at Western Union, Joe Manimbo said: "The U.K. Pound staged a swoon after the Bank of England dropped clear signals that it was edging closer to implementing negative borrowing rates. The big news was that officials were actively studying plans to push rates below zero given the ‘unusually uncertain’ economic outlook. Central bankers noted better data of late but signalled heightened concern related to Covid uncertainty, expectations of a sharp rise in unemployment and potential Brexit shocks."

However, some economists believe that the Bank will not push interest rates into negative territory and the recent news is part of the Bank’s research into negative interest rates rather than something more solid and definite.

But as Bloomberg said, a no-deal Brexit might just be the trigger for the BoE to use negative rates: “It’s becoming increasingly likely that if the economy is blown off course next year, the central bank could employ sub-zero rates.”

With the UK struggling to contain coronavirus infections, the imposition of new lockdown restrictions, unemployment and a disruptive Brexit could make the situation in the UK very difficult and push the Bank to make some hard decisions.


Are you Transferring Funds Abroad?

If you are worried about the possibility of a no-deal Brexit, and the British currency falling even further, you should get professional assistance when transferring funds abroad. Whether you are sending money to family or friends, paying employees overseas, or managing regular payments abroad, you need to protect your international payments’ budget from market volatility. Get in touch with Universal Partners FX to find out about efficient risk management and tailored solutions to your transfer needs.


The pound rose against the dollar on Wednesday, as the greenback was under pressure following the release of disappointing US retail sales figures for August.

The GBP/USD pair rose higher to weekly tops, despite the Brexit impasse and the latest saga with Boris Johnson’s Internal Market bill.

Wednesday's main event was the highly anticipated FOMC monetary policy decision - where rates look set to remain stable at near zero - and updated economic and inflation projections, ahead of Thursday’s BoE meeting. Due to the key FOMC event, trading opportunities and volatility around the GBP/USD currency pair might arise ahead of the event.


The pound was also supported after Justice Secretary Robert Buckland hinted the Government could amend the Internal Market Bill in order to compromise with Tories criticising the PM for breaking an international treaty and avoid a rift within the Conservative party. The government’s change of heart could help soften the EU’s stance and resume negotiations with the EU.

Buckland said that the original plans in the Bill could be made "acceptable to all Conservative colleagues".

With investors digesting the political reality and remaining confident that a deal is still possible, the pound was lifted after the initial news of the Internal Market bill.

"Outsized moves in GBP ... have injected a sizeable risk premium in GBP. It's now trading at a decent discount on our short-term valuation, underscoring that some of the recent Brexit news has already been priced in. At the very least, this backdrop suggests that in the coming weeks GBP would benefit more from good news rather than sink further on bad news. We still expect more volatility but risk/reward favours taking profit at these levels," said Mark McCormick of TD Securities.

Bank of England Policy and Interest Rate Decision on Thursday

The Bank of England will try and assess on Thursday the UK’s economic recovery and whether it needs to adjust its policy to offer more monetary support. For many economists, now it is not the right time to make significant changes to its package. Adding to the Bank’s woes about the UK economy comes the UK inflation which fell to its lowest level in nearly five years, to an annual 0.2%, far away from the Bank’s official 2% target.

The Bank is expected to take action in its November meeting, as the economy slowly recovers. According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development forecast released on Wednesday, UK gross domestic product would shrink by 10.1% this year, while the economy is forecast to rebound in 2021. Given the political and economic uncertainty, the BoE will possibly wait and see what kind of fiscal stimulus is necessary to support the economy. But Reuters noted that “While the central bank is widely expected to hold fire, policymakers are likely to conclude that downside risks to the economy are rising for the economy due to rising Brexit uncertainty and renewed restrictions on social activity.”

Are you Transferring Funds Abroad?

If you are worried about the possibility of a no-deal Brexit, and the British currency remaining sensitive to Brexit uncertainty, you should get professional assistance when transferring funds abroad. Whether you are sending money to family or friends, paying employees overseas, or managing regular payments abroad, you need to protect your international payments’ budget from market volatility. Get in touch with Universal Partners FX to find out about efficient risk management and tailored solutions to your transfer needs.

Sterling rose to an eight-month high due to dollar weakness and after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Thursday that the Fed will tolerate inflation above 2.0%. This gave investors hope that the Fed will not try and control economic growth, something that could hurt the US dollar in the near future. On the other hand, on Friday, after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s speech, the pound remained unmoved. Both Bailey and Powell gave their speeches at the Jackson Hole central bank symposium which was held online this year rather than at the usual ski resort in Wyoming.

Fed’s decision marks a significant shift in monetary policy

The Federal Reserve has approved a significant change in the way it sets its interest rates by abandoning the usual practice of raising them to control higher inflation, something that will leave US borrowing costs extremely low. By signalling that it wants inflation to rise moderately above its 2% target, the Fed confirmed that inflation targeting in a world of lower interest rates is a thing of the past.

Andrew Bailey’s speech

On Friday, the Governor of the BoE delivered his keynote address to fellow central bankers online and not from the actual ski resort in the Grand Tetons where the conference was traditionally organised since 1982.

In his speech, Bailey said that central banks have a lot of strength to use quantitative easing to manage crises, such as Covid-19. As he noted characteristically, “Go big (and fast) or go home.”

The Bank of England governor did not provide details over short-term policy or on the UK economic situation, but he did reassure the financial community that the Bank will be able to deal with future crises: “We are not out of firepower by any means, and to be honest it looks from today’s vantage point that we were too cautious about our remaining firepower pre-Covid. But, hindsight is a wonderful thing when you have it.”

He also said that the Bank won’t seek to restrict monetary policy until there is significant economic progress: “The committee does not intend to tighten monetary policy until there is clear evidence that significant progress is being made in eliminating spare capacity and achieving the 2% inflation target sustainably. This important step is intended to ensure monetary conditions do not tighten prematurely when there are some initial signs of an economic recovery.”

According to Bailey, QE will be “more long-lived” and that the Bank has the power to fight recessions. In regard to Jerome Powell’s comments from yesterday, Bailey said that these suggest that flexibility can be useful for monetary policy and that a different exchange rate environment could justify different approaches.

The Bank of England increased quantitative easing by £745 billion in June, and in March it cut its main interest rate to a record low 0.1%. A paper with the Bank’s conclusions will be published alongside Bailey’s speech.

Are you Transferring funds abroad?

Whether you are sending money to family and friends, buying a property or paying your children’s tuition fees, Universal Partners FX are the leading foreign exchange experts who can ensure you get the best rates and transfer your money safely, fast and efficiently. With state-of-the-art software, a dedicated team of currency brokers, and friendly customer support, UPFX can offer peace of mind, transferring your funds securely and in the most transparent and professional manner.

Get in touch with Universal Partners FX to learn more about transferring your funds overseas.

Sterling has rallied after better than expected forecasts from the Bank of England. The Bank noted that the economic standstill in the period between April and June was “less severe” than anticipated. While the UK economy has considerably shrunk this year due to the Coronavirus, it is now on a path to recovery, slowly picking up again.

Bank of England Monetary Policy Meeting

In its Thursday morning meeting, the Bank decided to keep UK borrowing costs at record lows, interest rates at just 0.1%, and its quantitative easing programme at £745bn.

According to its forecasts, UK recovery will take longer but the slump will be less severe. The Bank said that “the fall in output in Q2 is expected to have been less severe than was assumed in the illustrative scenario in the May Report. In that scenario, it was assumed that restrictions would be gradually unwound between early June and late September, but they were lifted earlier.” In terms of recovery, this will take time:

“In the MPC’s central projection, GDP continues to recover beyond the near term, as social distancing eases and consumer spending picks up further. Business investment also recovers, but somewhat more slowly. Unemployment declines gradually from the beginning of 2021 onwards. Activity is supported by the substantial fiscal and monetary policy actions in place. Nonetheless, the recovery in demand takes time as health concerns drag on activity. GDP is not projected to exceed its level in 2019 Q4 until the end of 2021, in part reflecting persistently weaker supply capacity. Given the scale of the movements in output, as well as the inherent uncertainty over the factors determining the outlook, the evolution of the balance between demand and supply is hard to assess.”

Labour market and employment

The Bank also warned that unemployment will rise sharply by the end of the year. The Bank’s monetary policy committee said:

“Employment appears to have fallen since the Covid-19 outbreak, although this has been very significantly mitigated by the extensive take-up of support from temporary government schemes. Surveys indicate that many workers have already returned to work from furlough, but considerable uncertainty remains about the prospects for employment after those support schemes unwind. In the near term, the unemployment rate is projected to rise materially, to around 7½% by the end of the year, consistent with a material degree of spare capacity.”

The unemployment rate is currently 3.9%, and the government’s furlough scheme is helping employers to keep their staff.

The Monetary Policy Committee highlighted the threat of unemployment, which will remain high next year too. The Bank’s economists said that the “Labour market slack persists over the first half of the forecast period, as unemployment is judged likely to decline only gradually after peaking in Q4. The gradual decline in part reflects an expectation that hiring will pick up relatively slowly, consistent with uncertainty affecting companies’ demand for labour. In addition, the MPC judges that there is likely to be some reduction in the efficiency with which people can find jobs. That tends to happen as unemployment rises, as some people take time to find new jobs, and their skills erode. Moreover, in the present conjuncture, the dispersed effects of Covid-19 on economic activity across sectors are judged to be likely to result in a greater degree of mismatch than usual, given differences between the sectors from which workers have been made unemployed and the sectors in which firms are posting vacancies.”

Speaking at a press conference on Thursday to discuss the Bank’s Monetary Report, Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey said that the forecast that unemployment might almost double to 7.5% is a “very bad story.” But he also said that it will eventually fall back to 4.5% by the end of 2022.

Negative Interest Rates?

The Bank of England said that it is currently considering the possibility of imposing negative interest rates in the UK, as other banks including in Japan and the Eurozone, have done. This means that banks will be charged for leaving money with the central bank, so they are forced to lend them. The Bank is currently deciding whether this will impact on the financial system, economic confidence and bank profits, as well as savers. According to the Bank, “the effectiveness of a negative policy rate will depend, in part, on the structure of the financial system and how the policy transmits through banks to the interest rates facing households and companies. It will also depend on the financial and economic conditions at the time.”


Transferring funds abroad?

Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey said that “There are some very hard yards, to borrow a rugby phrase, to come. And frankly, we are ready to act, should that be needed.” If you feel the same and you are ready to act, then get in touch with Universal Partners FX. Whether you are transferring funds overseas to family or for a new property, then Universal Partners FX team can help you access the most competitive exchange rates and make your stress-free.