Sterling climbed against the dollar on Monday after the EU and UK announced that they will “go the extra mile” and continue with Brexit negotiations. 

After last week, when the pound fell due to concerns over a no-deal Brexit, this week the pound rose reversing some of its losses. The Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen agreed during a “constructive” call on Sunday to “go the extra mile” in order to secure a trade deal for the UK. With no deadline for negotiations, British officials have said that negotiations could continue until Christmas. 

What do analysts say?

Whatever happens to the pound is going to have an impact on Thursday’s Bank of England meeting which is expected to remain on hold. Analysts believe that if markets are worried and the pound falls on the prospect of a no deal, then the BoE might increase its QE purchases within a short period of time. Nonetheless, pound volatility as we near the end of 2020 is to be expected. 

Goldman Sachs has predicted that the pound will rise if there is progress towards a deal or a no-deal Brexit is avoided. Barclays analysts explained that there will be risks to the pound until an agreement is reached. As the Financial Times reported, some analysts have changed their mind, quoting Gregory Perdon, co-chief investment officer at Arbuthnot Latham, who had “second thoughts” about the pound rising, but he reiterated his hopes for a deal as  “both parties are probably better off economically with a deal.” “Let’s hope rationality wins in this instance,” he added. 

Others more pessimistic, have warned that the pound’s gains might be short-lived, as both the UK and EU have failed to reach a deal repeatedly in the past.

Talking to Reuters, Junichi Ishikawa, senior foreign exchange strategist at IG Securities said: “This is a temporary move higher in the pound, but it is still not clear that a no-deal scenario can be avoided.”

Whether there is a deal or no deal, some investors feel that the pound could still move sharply.

What’s next?

The UK left the European Union on 31 January 2020, but the ongoing negotiations between the UK and EU officials are focussing on securing and negotiating a deal about the rules that will determine and define the kind of relationship the two parties will have post-Brexit. Michel Barnier has commented that Boris Johnson has made a mistake for hoping to negotiate an agreement within only 11 months.

The two sides have until 31 December 2020 to agree a trade deal and, if there is a deal, border checks and taxes will be introduced. The transition period ends on 31 December, and tariffs and quotas will be introduced in the event of a no deal.

A joint UK-EU statement stated that “despite the fact that deadlines have been missed over and over we think it is responsible at this point to go the extra mile."

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The pound appears to have risen ahead of the weekend, as Brexit negotiations continue. EU ambassadors have been told that a trade and security agreement with Britain is almost ready to be finalised as gaps on the contentious issues are “slowly shrinking.”

Both sides however remain inflexible, with European politicians saying that there remains work to be done and the UK saying that the EU needs to compromise. The risk of a no-deal Brexit in six weeks is still high.

According to a Bloomberg article, the UK “hasn’t moved sufficiently to overcome the main obstacles to a post-Brexit trade deal as three of the bloc’s leaders called for contingency plans to be stepped up in case there is no agreement.” Secretary General of the Commission Ilze Juhansone told envoys from the EU’s 27 member states on Friday that “negotiations could now slip into December as progress has been slow.”

On the other hand, the report noted that "The U.K. government has said that both sides have already made concessions on the three remaining areas of disagreement - access to British fishing waters, the level playing field for business, and how any deal is enforced - but that it’s up to the EU to make the final compromises."

A report on Reuters, stated that EU diplomats reported that “The European Union and Britain remain at odds in last-ditch trade talks over fishing rights, guarantees of fair competition and ways to solve future disputes, even though they are very close to agreement on other issues.” A senior EU diplomat told Reuters that “We are both close and far away. It seems that we are very close to agreement on most issues but differences on the three contentious issues persist.” Officials will continue negotiations online, as on Thursday it was announced that direct talks were suspended after a member of the EU team tested positive for COVID-19.

Negotiations are stuck

Negotiations have not progressed much as both sides remain unyielding on the main points: “Some things on the level playing field have moved, albeit very, very slowly. Fisheries are not really moving anywhere right now.” In terms of state aid, Britain has offered to set up a regulator for corporate subsidies, as the EU requested, but this was rejected as the body needed to be independent from the government and with a clear authority. Another EU official said that “negotiators mostly focused on such elements of corporate fair play as well as divvying up fishing quotas in recent days: ‘Both of these are still very stuck.’”

Pound Rises despite Brexit deadlock

The pound has risen against the Euro, Dollar and other major currencies, as negotiations continue. Markets remain confident that both sides will strike a deal despite the persistence of major differences. In the possibility of a trade agreement being reached the next two to three weeks, the EUR is expected to fall, something that will also be supported by positive news about a vaccine for Covid-19.

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Sterling extended earlier gains after a report that the UK and the European Union could agree on a trade and security deal some time next week. Optimism regarding striking an agreement has given the pound fresh impetus, despite that time is running out.

Economists believe that Sterling could strengthen more by mid-2021 if a free trade agreement is reached, as officials are expecting news of some form of progress as early as Monday. British and European parliaments will still need to confirm the terms of the agreement before the transition period ends on 31 December. At the moment, investors remain hopeful, but the possibility of the talks stalling as major differences cannot be bridged is strong, and in such a scenario the pound would likely fall.

Newspaper reports suggest a trade deal is possible

During the week, various newspaper reports have suggested that a trade deal is "just days away" with the Telegraph saying that Ireland believes there are "landing zones" for an agreement and that France has accepted the restrictions to its fishing rights in UK waters after the transition period ends. The newspaper also reported that "the trade agreement could be announced as early as Monday, sources in Brussels suggested – but only if both sides made compromises on issues such as fishing and subsidy law." On Tuesday, the Sun newspaper said a deal could be expected next Tuesday, as the UK Chief Negotiator David Frost said to the Prime Minister Boris Johnson to prepare for a trade deal on Tuesday, news that have helped lift the pound.

Despite positive but unofficial reports in British newspapers, both the EU and UK have not offered a definite answer about the status of the negotiations which means the possibility of a no deal is still a valid outcome with some analysts remaining very cautious. At the same time, the markets seem to have made peace with a possible no-deal scenario, so any news of a deal, no matter what that deal is, will lift the pound. However, a possible deal will only mean temporary and limited gains for the pound according to some analysts, while for others, a considerable rise should be expected.

Brexiteers feel stuck as no deal impossible

The UK is now trapped and will be unable to benefit from Brexit, said former Brexit Party MEP Ben Habib. Habib, who attacked the PM saying that a no deal Brexit was not possible, said in an interview to Express.co.uk, that "We are already stuck, to some extent, in the gravitational pull of the European Union.” For hard Brexiteer Habib, a no deal Brexit would allow the UK to completely cut its ties to the European Union, but, unfortunately, this is not possible anymore. As he said, "We have a deal of some description from which we simply cannot escape."

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The pound was pulled from different directions yesterday, as on the one hand, the Bank of England hinting at negative interest rates pushed it lower, and on the other hand, positive Brexit news helped lift it.

The pound fell after the Bank of England said that it is considering how to use negative interest rates and it will discuss with regulators how to efficiently implement them. The pound dropped sharply after the announcement.

As quoted on Bloomberg, Valentin Marinov, head of foreign exchange research and strategy at Credit Agricole SA, said: “Negative rates are the nuclear option. It could ultimately push the pound into uncharted territory of losing whatever is left of its rate advantage.”

A Brexit Trade Deal is Still Possible

Despite the negative news, there was a glimpse of positivity on Thursday after the EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that she remains "convinced" that an EU-UK trade deal is still possible, which helped the pound recover. Von der Leyen, speaking to the Financial Times, said: "I am still convinced it can be done. It is better not to have this distraction questioning an existing international agreement that we have, but to focus on getting this deal done, this agreement done - and time is short." Another EU diplomat said that "we should not overreact... We will continue negotiations because there are two separate tracks: one is the one which the UK has decided to violate, and the other is the future relationship."

If markets maintain a similar view that a trade deal is possible then the pound will be supported.

Bank of England’s Negative Interest Rate Surprise

After the Bank unexpectedly said that it was considering the possibility to cut interest rates to 0% or below in the coming months, to help support the economy, the pound fell.  There have never been any negative interest rates before in the UK and if the Bank moves ahead with changing the rates to record lows, this could really shake the financial system, especially due to the UK’s current account deficit. As Pound Sterling Live noted, this could leave “the UK's financial system, and Pound Sterling in particular, exposed to capital withdrawals from foreign investors.”

The shocking revelation was found within the Bank’s minutes to the meeting where it stated that it would start a "structured engagement" with the Prudential Regulation Authority in order to potentially cut interest rates to negative.

Senior market analyst at Western Union, Joe Manimbo said: "The U.K. Pound staged a swoon after the Bank of England dropped clear signals that it was edging closer to implementing negative borrowing rates. The big news was that officials were actively studying plans to push rates below zero given the ‘unusually uncertain’ economic outlook. Central bankers noted better data of late but signalled heightened concern related to Covid uncertainty, expectations of a sharp rise in unemployment and potential Brexit shocks."

However, some economists believe that the Bank will not push interest rates into negative territory and the recent news is part of the Bank’s research into negative interest rates rather than something more solid and definite.

But as Bloomberg said, a no-deal Brexit might just be the trigger for the BoE to use negative rates: “It’s becoming increasingly likely that if the economy is blown off course next year, the central bank could employ sub-zero rates.”

With the UK struggling to contain coronavirus infections, the imposition of new lockdown restrictions, unemployment and a disruptive Brexit could make the situation in the UK very difficult and push the Bank to make some hard decisions.

 

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The latest release of the UK inflation figures has failed to provide a boost to the pound. Despite the recent Brexit optimism, the pound did not rise further after the latest inflation figures which came in line with expectations.

The GBP did not react to the news that inflation fell to 0.5% during May as it was expected. Sterling’s upside is also considered to be limited as traders are expected to remain cautious ahead of the latest monetary policy update by the Bank of England on Thursday. The BoE is expected to keep rates at 0.1% and increase its quantitative easing programme by £100bn.

UK CPI

According to the Office for National Statistics, the UK consumer price inflation eased for the fourth consecutive month in May, coming at an annual rate of 0.5%, meeting expectations. Inflation has fallen after a record fall in fuel prices which dragged the UK's inflation rate down. This was due to the lockdown as May was the second full month of the coronavirus lockdown restrictions. This was the lowest annual rate recorded since the Brexit referendum vote in June 2016.

Economists said that this will inevitably add to the discussions of whether the Bank of England will likely take Bank rates into negative territory.

ONS deputy national statistician Jonathan Athow said: “The growth in consumer prices again slowed to the lowest annual rate in four years. The cost of games and toys fell back from last month’s rises, while there was a continued drop in prices at the pump in May, following the huge crude price falls seen in recent months. Outside these areas, we are seeing few significant changes to the prices in the shops.”

Rising prices for food and non-alcoholic drinks helped offset the pressure from the falling oil and petrol prices in May.

What economists say

Economist James Smith explained that the UK inflation will stay below 1% this year:

“The other argument that is often made in favour of inflation returning, is that governments and central banks are pumping vast amounts of cash into the system. But this is unlikely to lead to higher prices, at least in the short/medium-term. In the case of the government, its spending has so far been solely aimed at keeping firms and consumers afloat, rather than trying to stimulate demand (which by definition, is constrained by the ongoing lockdown measures). The bottom line is that inflationary pressures are likely to remain fairly muted for the time being. This, in turn, will keep the pressure on the Bank of England to maintain its current degree of stimulus, and we expect a further £150 billion of QE to be unveiled this week.”

Chief UK economist at Capital Economics, Paul Dales, also said that "May's further fall in inflation is probably only the beginnings of a prolonged period of very soft price pressure." This he clarified, will drive MPC members to ask for more stimulus to boost the economy on the BoE’s policy meeting on Thursday.

For many businesses and consumers, the year ahead appears to be a very tough one, with more pressure on households. Businesses and employers have been hurt, and there is generally pessimism about the status of the UK economy due to the coronavirus and a possible second wave of Covid-19 cases.

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The pound has regained its momentum since yesterday, after the positive news of new US Federal Reserve stimulus and the latest post-Brexit trade talks between the EU and the UK.

Sterling rose after Prime Minister Boris Johnson said yesterday that there is a "very good chance" a trade deal will be made with the EU. Both Johnson and the EU Commission President Ursula von Der Leyen agreed that there will not be an extension to the Brexit transition period, which will end on 31 December 2020. The pressure is now on both sides to agree on a post-Brexit trade deal, so the UK does not leave the bloc without a deal. If the UK leaves the bloc without a deal, then Britain will revert to World Trade Organisation terms, which will mean that the UK would have to pay high tariffs and quotas at a time when the country’s economy is dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic.

Fresh Momentum injected into the negotiations

According to Reuters, the hour-long video call on Monday between Johnson and the EU Commission’s von Der Leyen, “has injected fresh momentum” into the negotiations, as “people on both sides with knowledge of the conversation,” attested. The “EU inferred from Johnson’s contributions that he is willing to soften his position and European officials told him they are ready to do the same.” After the call, Johnson said: “I don’t think we are actually that far apart -- what we need to see now is a bit of oomph in the negotiations. The faster we can do this the better: we see no reason why you shouldn’t get that done in July.”

Obstacles Remain

Johnson’s latest communication with the EU comes after three months of trade talks which have ended in deadlock. However, things might not be completely resolved just yet, as EU Council President Charles Michel warned that the EU will not “buy a pig in a poke” as it was not in any hurry to reach an agreement. He said: “We won’t just speed up. We have to remain focused on content and consequences.” While the UK has been pushing to speed up the discussions, the EU wants to make reasonable steps, with the next discussions to resume on 29 June. Johnson explained that he is against the talks “going on until the autumn, winter, as perhaps some in Brussels would like.”

Both sides have failed to reach an agreement on a free-trade deal as well as find common ground when it comes to certain EU standards and demands regarding fishing rights and security which the UK believes are binding it to EU rules. Also, the UK continues to refuse to accept the power of the European Court of Justice to settle any disagreements between the two sides.

Pound Remains Unpredictable

With Brexit negotiations in the background, Paul Meggyesi, Head of FX Research at JP Morgan noted that the pound’s trajectory would remain unpredictable. He said: “GBP is liable to become ever-more idiosyncratic as the UK nears the business end of the entire Brexit process, the last six months of the transition period, with still a trade deal to be negotiated. This puts GBP at the mercy of unpredictable Brexit news flows, and investors should be prepared for potentially quite violent swings in GBP as the market tries to benchmark probabilities of the potential outcomes and eventually moves from valuing GBP on a probability-weighted basis to pricing a central scenario and then the eventual outcome itself.”

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With Britain’s future trade relationships in question, and a no-deal Brexit looming on the horizon, the government has been preparing for post-Brexit agreements in an attempt to minimise the effects of Brexit.

New Zealand and Britain trade deal

On Monday, Britain’s Trade Minister Liz Truss said that striking a trade deal with New Zealand would be a priority, as officials are working to create continuity and support their non-EU trading partners. Truss, is on a three-nation tour, which includes New Zealand, Australia and Japan, a trip that hopes to pave the way for trade negotiations after Brexit. Ahead of her trip, Truss said: “We’re going to be leaving the European Union on October 31 with or without a deal and as part of that agenda, striking trade deals much more broadly than we have been doing is going to be vitally important. Striking a free trade deal with New Zealand is a very important priority for the UK. It’s one of the first trade deals we expect to strike.”

Official data shows that trade between New Zealand and Britain is at about NZ$6 billion (£3.1 billion), with New Zealand being Britain’s 43rd largest trading partner in 2017.

New Zealand’s Trade and Export Growth Minister David Parker said that he wanted to find a way that will retain the existing advantages of New Zealand traders despite Brexit. Parker said that among the subjects discussed, were finding ways to cooperate such as Britain’s potential accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).

Businesses preparing for Brexit

If the UK leaves the EU without a withdrawal agreement, it will be treated as a non-EU country. For this reason, it is significant that businesses in the EU prepare for this eventuality, if they have not already done so. Businesses that sell to, buy from, or move through the UK, goods, supplies or services will be affected.

Customs duties and restrictions

Without a transitional period, the UK will revert to the WTO rules. This will mean “declarations will have to be lodged and customs authorities may require guarantees for potential or existing customs debts; Customs duties will apply to goods entering the EU from the United Kingdom, without preferences. Prohibitions or restrictions may also apply to some goods entering the EU from the United Kingdom, which means that import or export licences might be required.”  No longer valid will be UK import and export licences, UK authorisations for customs simplifications or procedures and Authorised Economic Operator (AEO) authorisations. There will be VAT charges for imports of goods entering the EU from the UK, while exports to the UK will be exempt from VAT. Additionally many rules regarding declaration and payment of VAT will change.

It won’t be easy to move goods to the UK, as that it will require an export declaration. Movement of excise goods from the United Kingdom to the EU will have to go through customs before a movement under Excise Movement and Control System(EMCS) can commence.

UK businesses

UK businesses then that export, import or move goods and services through the UK will need to prepare by completing relevant documents so that the transition to post-Brexit Britain is as smooth as possible.

If you are an importer or exporter and are concerned about the weakening pound as well as unpredictable political developments regarding Brexit, get in touch with Universal Partners FX. UPFX can assist you with the complexities of cross-border payments and regular transfers, as well as hedge your funds against volatile currency market movements. Give them a call today to find out how they can help you save on your international currency transfers.

No-deal Brexit might loom on the horizon, but this has not deterred many Brits from buying or considering to buy property abroad.

When it comes to Brexit, the latest release of a government document outlining “reasonable worst case scenarios” in the case of a no-deal Brexit on 31 October, has left many shocked. While the government resisted the publication of the so-called Operation Yellowhammer document, the six-page document which is dated 2 August and was leaked to the Sunday Times last month, warns of a three-month disruption at Dover and other channel crossings, public disorder and shortages of fresh food.

Buying in France

While the political landscape in Britain is chaotic, with the prospect of a no-deal Brexit looking more threatening day by day, many Brits are considering moving to France.

As the British parliament is trying to stop a no-deal Brexit, many European countries, including France, Spain and Germany are preparing for Brexit.

The French government and customs authorities will test a period before Brexit to judge the preparedness of companies in the case a no-deal Brexit. According to Gerald Darmanin, the French minister in charge of overseeing the customs agency, French companies which conduct their business in Britain will have to present their plans online, make their declarations to customs officers and open up their shipments to inspectors.

He explained that countries doing business with Britain should be prepared to deal with the country as if it was “South Africa.” He also explained that, “For a month, we are going to act as if there is Brexit for a large number of companies. We’re going to put in place a sort of general rehearsal, so that we are ready at the end of October.”

With more than 4 million trucks going through the northern port of Calais every year, businesses have been used to frictionless trade without having to deal with customs controls and borders. For this reason, many fear that a no-deal Brexit would cause chaos at the borders creating uncontrolled traffic. In this respect, customs officers' numbers will increase by 700, while the customs agency is practicing all through September to prepare.

Residency rights for Brits

According to The Local, France will launch a new online platform in October so that Brits can apply for their carte de séjour residency permits. The French Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, stated: "The Ministry of the Interior will launch an online registration platform for British nationals living in France in October." The website will be in English and Brits will be able to complete their application online, scan in all relevant supporting documents and then receive a receipt for their application, with only one in-person appointment for fingerprints. This appointment can be done at préfectures, sous-préfectures or local mairies. Some prefectures have closed applications as they don’t know yet what will happen with Brexit, while others are processing applications within weeks. The online application system can be used by Brits already living in France on the day of Brexit.

The French government and the British embassy have advised British residents in France, living there for more than five years, to apply for cartes de séjour residency permits.

After Brexit, all British people will apply for residency rights, in the same way that third-country nationals do. While a no-deal Brexit will allow for a one-year grace period, applications should be sent within six months of Brexit day. On the other hand, if there is a deal in place, there might be a transition period until December 2020. For those who already have a carte de séjour permanent they will be able to exchange it after Brexit. More information is regularly updated on the French government’s website.

Kalba Meadows from the British in Europe citizens’ rights’ group said: "We were given to understand last year that there would be a centralised application platform, and this was confirmed in the table produced by the European Commission in June, so while it's not 'new news' for us it's good that a timeline will now been put into place so that the process can begin as soon as possible. It's going to be a mammoth task processing applications from up to 200k Brits in France. As ever, the devil is in the detail though - and we understand that although applications will be made on a central online platform they will still be processed by individual préfectures, many of which will struggle to meet the demand without extra resources.”

For the French government a no-deal Brexit is the most likely scenario, with officials expecting an economic slowdown.

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The release of the UK's GDP with a better-than-expected 0.3% growth in July, has raised chances of the UK avoiding a recession and boosted the pound. Data from the Office for National Statistics showed that all sectors of the economy grew in the month – the first of the third quarter, with manufacturing also expanding by 0.3%, and the industrial sector growing by 0.1% during the month. However, the last three months the GDP has remained flat, as Brexit uncertainty has impacted on investment.

This is why, despite Brexit recession fears having eased, the economy remains under pressure. For example, the services sector growth might be an indication that businesses are stockpiling in preparation for Brexit as its outcome continues to be unknown. Plus, as many economists indicate, it is unclear for how long growth will continue.

KPMG report  

As accountancy firm KPMG forecasted, there is a possibility of Britain falling into a recession in 2020 if it leaves the EU without a deal. According to the firm, a no-deal Brexit will negatively affect the UK’s trade and business confidence and lead to the economy shrinking by 1.5% in 2020. The accountancy giant is not the first to warn of the negative effects of Brexit on the economy, as experts have already underlined the grim economic outlook for Britain.

Forecasts by the Bank of England and the Office for Budget Responsibility, have also highlighted the negative economic consequences of a no-deal Brexit and, consequently, of losing access to the EU single market and customs union.

The possible recession will cause a rise in unemployment, a decline in consumer spending and an estimated 6 percent slide in house prices, the KPMG report added.

Yael Selfin, the  KPMG’s chief economist noted that in the case of a recession resulting from a no-deal Brexit, the decline in the pound’s exchange rate will “push up inflation to above the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target, potentially forcing the central bank to lower its key interest rate to near zero.”  With the central bank’s key rate currently standing at 0.75 per cent, interest rate cuts will possibly be no higher than 1 percentage point.

The report also said: “[The new government’s] resolve to leave the EU by 31 October has become increasingly clear . . . and the proximity of the date make the outlook for the next two years rather bipolar.” KPMG added that the pound’s 10 percent expected decline in value, will hurt even exporters as issues over borders will eliminate any positive effect the weaker currency might have. Selfin said: “The most damaging impacts could come from potential shortages of imported foodstuffs as well as medicines in the immediate term, negatively impacting households’ sentiment.”

Selfin could not be clearer when discussing the damaging effects of a no-deal on the economy: “With the Brexit debate poised on a knife-edge, the UK economy is now at a crossroads. It is difficult to think of another time when the UK has been on the verge of two economic out-turns that are so different, but the impact of a no-deal Brexit should not be underestimated. Despite headwinds such as the slowing global economy and limited domestic capacity, the UK economy now has the potential to strengthen over the next 12 months. But a no-deal Brexit could put paid to this upside, triggering the UK’s first recession for a decade.”

Government and Bank of England will be unable to stop a recession

Indeed, the outlook looks grim as the economy contracted by 0.2 percent between April and June, with investment and growth being limited. 

On Monday (9 September), the Resolution Foundation thinktank in its assessment of the UK’s readiness to respond to the next recession, said that the government and the Bank of England were unprepared and that this was a significant risk that policy makers should take seriously. As the think tank noted: “The UK’s macroeconomic policy framework has not kept pace with significant changes to our economic environment and is therefore at risk of leaving the country underprepared for the next recession. That is not a risk policymakers should take lightly.”

 In its key findings, the think tank stressed that the country was facing the biggest risk of recession since 2007, that those of lower incomes would be the most exposed to the recession and that monetary policy will be unable to provide “anything like the level of support it has previously in recessions, reflecting what appears to be a secular decline in the level of interest rates around the world.”

Importing and exporting

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Brexit: Buying Property Abroad as Pound Tumbles

Buying property abroad has become more complex the last few years as Brexit uncertainty and the pound’s volatility continue to negatively impact the UK economy, with fears of a recession increasing.

Brexit update

On Tuesday (3/9), the pound experienced increased volatility, reaching its lowest level  in 34 years, from which it rebounded, as rebel Tory and opposition MPs attempted to block a no-deal Brexit. The prime minister Boris Jonson was eventually defeated. According to the so-called Benn bill, if he is unable to reach an agreement with Brussels in the next few weeks, he will have to delay Britain’s departure from the European Union until 31 January.

Sterling dropped due to fears of a snap general election, reaching its lowest level in more than three decades, with the exception of the October 2016 “flash crash." Ahead of the vote, and after Tory MP Philip Lee’s defection to the Liberal Democrats, it rose slightly.

“For all the uncertainty that lies ahead, markets see a Boris Johnson led no-deal Brexit as the worst-case scenario and thus treat anything that undermines that as pound positive,” said analyst at IG Joshua Mahony.

According to the Independent, a Bloomberg survey last month, showed that a delay was seen as the most positive outcome for the pound. Sterling has tumbled significantly since the EU referendum in June 2016.

Boris Johnson’s defeat by a margin of 328 to 301 on Tuesday, has put the prime minister in a precarious position, and has wounded his rhetoric of no-deal. As a result of his defeat, the prime minister said he would table a bill to trigger a general election, but Labour said it would not back his election motion, which requires a two-thirds majority to pass through the Commons.

On Thursday, the House of Lords voted in favour of getting the Benn bill, that will rule out a no-deal Brexit, through all the stages of parliament by Friday afternoon.

Buying your dream abroad

For many, the decision to buy a home abroad is not significantly affected by Brexit. They have prepared and have done their research and are confident that their decision is final. For them, consulting a leading expert in transferring money abroad has also given them peace of mind. Foreign exchange specialists such as Universal Partners FX have years of experience in international money transfers and can navigate volatile currency markets, saving you money and time. So, considering the current volatility and the weakness of the pound, getting help from UPFX will help you significantly when you make large international transfers to buy property abroad or pay related costs.

Residency rights

Due to the fact that many Brits are already living in countries such as France and Spain, and with more EU countries guaranteeing British expats post-Brexit grace periods, British expats are slightly less worried about Brexit, especially the ones already living there. As many European countries have pledged to offer legal residency rights to British expats in return for the same rights for European nationals residing in the UK, it is hard to see that certain freedoms will completely eclipsed after Brexit. For example, the Italian government has announced that British expats will remain legal residents in the event of no deal, while the Spanish authorities are saying British expats will have the same rights in Spain post-Brexit as long as Spaniards already living in the UK are offered the same residency rights.

France has also made sure to clarify its position on residency by passing a bill in the case of a no-deal Brexit, followed by a government decree. Like other European countries, France will apply these rights as long as the UK does the same for French nationals living in the UK. After Brexit, for example, Britons in France will have six months to apply for a residence card. During the one-year transitional period Brits will continue to have existing rights over residence, work and benefits, while they can enjoy access to healthcare for two years after Brexit. Remain in France and the UK government website provide more details.

So, if you are buying a home in a European country, you need to consider all the complexities of life abroad after Brexit. More importantly, as the pound continues to fluctuate, getting expert help from a foreign exchange specialist such as UPFX, will prove to be extremely beneficial especially when you are transferring your hard-earned money. Get in touch with them today for a quick quote and find out how much you can save on your international currency transfers.