The British pound fell against the euro and US dollar, after the remarkable recovery it enjoyed during the first three months of the year. With the euphoria about the UK’s successful vaccination programme starting to wear off and a wider demand for the euro, the Sterling outlook is not looking as promising.

The pound performed very well against the euro in the opening quarter of 2021, but since February’s highs, it has dropped, suggesting that the Eurozone is performing comparatively better as the European coronavirus vaccination rates have increased. For many economists, further gains for the pound might prove to be difficult as most of the good news has already been priced in.

Bright Outlook for the Pound might be threatened

The UK economy managed to recover after a difficult 2020, as economists grew optimistic after the successful and rapid vaccine rollouts and the easing of the lockdown restrictions. The economy is expected to expand 5% this year, something that has boosted the pound the first quarter. The reopening of the economy has been now priced in, while the sell-off in UK government bonds, pushed yields higher and supported the pound. However, economists are questioning about how much higher the pound could possibly go. Foreign exchange analysts are warning that the UK is in a more difficult position than other economies due to the fact it was severely affected by the Covid-19 crisis earlier on, despite economic momentum accelerating. Additionally, there are worries about the potential impact of Brexit, with exports and imports with the EU having fallen dramatically in January.

The pound will find support if the UK manages to continue attracting investments such as cross-border mergers and acquisitions which are a significant part of the conditions required for continued growth.

Pound sensitive to BoE Andy Haldane’s departure

News that the Bank of England Chief Economist Andy Haldane would be leaving the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee has also affected the pound. One of the reasons was that Haldane was a hawk on the MPC, supporting higher interest rates and being optimistic about the UK economy. A hawkish central bank is linked to a solid and strong currency, and as such his departure was interpreted as a crucial factor in the pound’s weakness. His views on the economy were seen as vital for boosting the pound in February.

With Haldane leaving, the MPC may now react to any forthcoming inflation risks a little later, but markets will need to wait and see who the new chief economist will be and reassess the new policy changes. For other economists, Haldane’s departure might not have a long-lasting effect on Sterling as there weren’t any plans of tightening the BoE policy in the coming months anyway.

The recent declines of the pound might also be short-lived as some economists expect the pound to continue its outperformance, particularly against the Euro.

Are you Transferring Funds Abroad?

If you are a business transferring funds overseas, contacting a currency specialist could save you time and money. Get in touch with Universal Partners FX and their dedicated team to discuss these factors in further detail and be kept up to date with the latest market movements ahead of your currency exchange. If you are paying your employees abroad, get in touch with Universal Partners FX to find out how much you can save in your international money transfers. Universal Partners FX can provide invaluable help on efficient risk management and tailored solutions to your personal or business’ transfer needs.

Buying a property abroad can be difficult especially with the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit. But considering the advantages and disadvantages, and doing your own research wisely, you will be able to buy a property without throwing your life savings away. It will be good to discuss your property purchase with a currency specialist who will help you understand the market and offer assistance when making large or regular international transfers. This will be significant particularly due to the current political chaos in the UK. On Wednesday, Merkel gave the prime minister an ultimatum to find a solution with regards to the Irish backstop, as the pound slipped to low levels, close to the ones seen back in January 2007.

Brexit

In his meeting with Merkel, Johnson accepted the German Chancellor’s "blistering timetable" admitting that it was the UK’s burden to find a solution to the political deadlock. In his familiar humorous style, Johnson repeated Merkel's campaign slogan "Wir schaffen das," or "we can do it," causing laughter among the Chancellor and reporters.

In a Bloomberg article, it was reported that after Boris Johnson’s letter to EU officials, the French government now expects the U.K. to leave the EU without a deal, something that would immediately install border controls at the end of October.

The article notes that with Johnson becoming prime minister, EU officials believe that a no-deal Brexit would be the most likely outcome, as the UK “doesn’t have a realistic plan for an alternative to the backstop. The measure is despised by ardent Brexiteers in Johnson’s Conservative Party because it keeps the U.K. tied to many of the EU’s customs and trading rules, and Parliament has rejected the Brexit deal three times.”

Buying your dream or retirement home

Despite the political deadlock in the UK, if you have made your research and you are certain about moving abroad and purchasing your dream home, then there’s a few things you need to have in mind.

First, you should research the area of your desired property and find out the benefits of living in that neighbourhood. Are there any amenities nearby, is there access to the beach or the motorway, and generally, what is the atmosphere and feeling of the area and community? You will have to live there and, perhaps, in the future, sell the property with significant returns. So, trying to get the best deal for the best location will definitely enhance your investment in the future.

Make sure that you are not buying something you have never seen in person before. In the case that a developing company will take care of the construction of the building, but you have only saw the plans, do your research beforehand and find out whether the developers are reliable. Having a contract that guarantees that by the end of the project you will get what you were promised is the most secure way to safeguard your interests. Not only foreigners, but locals have fallen in the trap of buying a property but not the land is on, resulting in court cases and lots of stress.

Talk to the experts

From currency exchange brokers, to mortgage brokers and lawyers you will need specialist help when deciding to relocate and purchase a property abroad. In this sense, you will need to factor in costs for legal advice, taxes, notary fees, utilities, such as electricity, water, and gas connections.

Buying a property in France or Italy, 10%-12% of the property’s purchase price would go to cover government taxes and legal fees, while in Spain can go up to 12%-16%.

If you are buying property abroad, it is very important to go to a specialist such as Universal Partners FX. With the current volatility and weak pound, it is best that you contact a currency specialist as soon as you start the buying process, so that you get the best exchange rates possible and pay the minimum amount of fees. UPFX conduct in-depth market analysis, use state of the art technology and can offer access to the best exchange rates available. Get in touch with them today to find out how much you can save on your currency transfers.