The improved global market sentiment and the slowing of Covid-19 case rates has helped the pound to recover, but Brexit anxieties could pose a potential threat to the currency.

Covid-19 and the NHS app

This week alone 96 deaths have been reported, the highest number since March. While on 1 June there were 0 coronavirus deaths, 1,114 deaths have been reported since then with 73 deaths being reported on Wednesday (21 July). The vaccination programme has not managed to break the link between infections and fatalities, with the total number of deaths from the pandemic reaching 128,896. However, new cases have not risen considerably, as the number of new cases that were reported on Wednesday was 44,104, slightly higher than the previous week’s 42,302. As it stands, 46,388,744 people have been vaccinated at least with the first shot in the UK. According to statistics, around 39,035 people had their first jab on Tuesday, while 161,279 people had their second shot yesterday, with 36,404,566 people now being fully inoculated.

With the ongoing self-isolation of workers due to coming into close contact with a positive coronavirus case, businesses have been affected, while the government has expressed its apologies for the inconvenience. Director of food and sustainability at the British Retail Consortium Andrew Opie told The Times that the "pingdemic” has put pressure on retailers who found it difficult to keep stores open and shelves stocked, demanded that the government needed to act fast.

Boris Johnson, speaking at the last PMQs before the summer recess, said "everybody understands the inconvenience of being pinged". The prime minister himself had to isolate after coming into contact with Covid-positive Health Secretary Sajid Javid last week.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer accused the prime minister of the mixed messages regarding the NHS Covid-19 app and said: "When it comes to creating confusion, the prime minister is a super-spreader.” Starmer had to isolate himself following one of his children being tested positive.

According to the figures from the ONS, around 9 in 10 adults in all parts of the UK could possibly have Covid-19 antibodies with the estimates ranging from 88.6% in Scotland to 92.6% in Wales, 90.0% for Northern Ireland and 91.9% for England.

Brexit and Covid-19: How will the pound fair?

It simply depends on improved market sentiment and the management of the Covid-19 Delta variant. The near-term outlook for Sterling will be determined by concerns regarding the Delta variant and whether investors have fully priced in the news.  If they have done so, then possibly the currency and market sentiment will improve. 

Brexit remains a threat to the currency too, as the UK and EU could find themselves at the opposite end of the table over the Northern Ireland question. On Wednesday, the UK announced its intention to renegotiate certain points included in the Northern Ireland protocol, and argued that in its current form it will create problems for trading goods between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. The release of the command paper outlining the UK government proposals about how the Protocol should be changed poses a major challenge to the EU.  This move could potentially hurt the pound, according to analysts. However, they believe that this could become a more serious concern as we move closer to 1 October with potential legal battles and EU threatening the UK with the imposition of trade sanctions.

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