The pound is not expected to rise higher from current levels, analysts have said. Brexit tensions and an early interest rate hike by the Bank of England could eventually push the pound lower. Barclays warned of possible Brexit tensions rattling the foreign exchange market, while HSBC analysts said that the pound is not cheap and that there are significant risks to the UK outlook.
HSBC currency analysts believe that the pound should have been higher than current levels, considering market expectations for an earlier rate hike. The fact that the British currency has failed to advance despite these developments, suggests that political risks are returning to the currency.
HSBC analysts do not see scope for further Sterling gains, as the pound faces opposing forces including growth, inflation, rate expectations and external balances. They argue that the pound’s trajectory will become clear once one of these forces dominates the other. The bank said that Sterling could gain in the near-term due to the Bank’s expected rate increases but this would be offset by a deteriorating economy as the Bank’s monetary tightening fades quickly. The high energy costs combined with higher inflation will slow economic growth, the analysts added.
- Brexit vote and financial crisis
HSBC noted that the pound has been deeply affected by the Brexit referendum in 2016 and earlier by the 2008/9 financial crisis. Both events have influenced the fair value assessments of the pound and they argue that currently the UK currency is closer to fair value and even expensive against other currencies.
HSBC bank notes that the UK is expected to grow at a slower pace while exhibiting the highest inflation in over a decade, with fears of stagflation hurting the pound. In a survey conducted by Barclaycard, 90% of the shoppers said they were concerned that rising costs of everyday items would affect their household finances.
Barclays analysts are also concerned with the pound outlook as they have pointed out that tensions between the EU and UK over the Northern Ireland protocol could negatively impact on the foreign exchange market. Failure to reach an agreement might result in the UK triggering Article 16 of the protocol, triggering retaliation measures by the EU such as tariffs and impacting on the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA). Any such scenarios will hurt the pound.
Britain wants to negotiate a “new protocol” to regulate post-Brexit trade in Northern Ireland, Britain’s Brexit Minister David Frost said in Lisbon on Tuesday. Ahead of the European Commission's formal response to the UK’s plan, Lord David Frost said the EU would be making a “historic misjudgement” if it refused to rewrite the Brexit deal covering trading arrangements for Northern Ireland. Brussels has warned the UK that they are not in a position to indulge themselves in important renegotiations.
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