The outlook for Sterling will remain at risk as market analysts are cautious for the UK currency, especially with the new week having started with further pound declines.

Bank of England policy meeting

While the pound has enjoyed gains in the beginning of the new year and until recently, analysts are slowly becoming more cautious following last week’s sharp decline with traders less confident in the currency. Therefore, traders will focus on this week’s Bank of England policy meeting on Thursday for some direction for Sterling. If the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee delivers a more hawkish than expected message then the pound could regain some of its recent losses against the US dollar, analysts believe. On Thursday, the Bank of England will provide their latest assessment on the UK economy but is not expected to take any action and it will leave interest rates unchanged. It will be in August’s policy report that any possible major changes in the Bank’s direction will be announced, and the market will focus on such expectations and whether economic recovery will drive the Bank to change interest rates next year. If the Bank reveals any signs that it is going to move towards this direction, then the pound might be lifted by the end of the week.

Potential dangers for the pound

Some analysts believe that much of the positive news is already priced in and that the pound will be vulnerable to downside moves if economic data disappoints. It has also been noted that we should be more optimistic as the pound has responded rather well to economic data, but that currency risks are indeed real and could potentially hurt the pound. For example, there are currency risks related to the futures market as there are traders who are holding long positions—meaning they have purchased Sterling and are waiting for the currency’s price to go up—and when those positions are undone and the pound is sold, they will expose the pound to a fall.

There are also risks regarding the pound’s performance and the loss of momentum. The Sterling 2021 rally has now stopped, and this is a possible reason for concern.

Another possible reason for concern is the rising tensions between the UK and EU and a potential trade war about the Northern Ireland protocol. The EU has threatened the UK with tariffs on UK exports if Britain fails to implement the Northern Ireland protocol. Analysts remain cautious as discussions continue and further potential challenges arise. It was announced last week that the UK government requested from the EU the suspension of some elements regarding the Northern Ireland protocol until October, while they strive to reach an agreement on transporting chilled meat products from Great Britain to Northern Ireland. Any news regarding tensions between the UK and EU on the Northern Ireland protocol could trigger Sterling volatility.

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