If strong domestic data confirm expectations that the UK economy is growing, then the pound could rise higher. According to a recent UK business activity survey, the August Bank holiday weekend is expected to push business revenue higher as more consumers flock to the shops.
Sterling will remain volatile due to global developments and concerns about the spread of the new Covid variant, but UK economic growth and Bank of England policy will also be key drivers of the currency. The release of better-than-expected economic data will offer much needed support to the economy and the pound.
Pound sentiment suppressed due to labour market concerns
Concerns that a labour shortage could impact on the UK’s economic recovery have been expressed in the quarterly survey from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI). A quarterly survey conducted by the CBI from July 29 to Aug. 16, showed that optimism was at minus 17% this month, down from May’s 47% as companies struggled to bounce back after the pandemic. Charlotte Dendy principal economist for the CBI, said on Thursday that “Firms in sectors such as hotels, restaurants and travel do not expect this strength to persist into the next quarter, reflecting the pressure that consumer services firms continue to face.” Labour shortages could weigh on businesses’ investment plans for the next 12 months.
For services businesses, there are added costs and higher wages after the pandemic that they need to resolve, while Brexit has made it more difficult to access talent from the EU. An index tracing the outlook for costs showed that it has reached the higher in two years and is starting to filter through to the prices, with average selling prices rising at the fastest rate since 2019.
Bank of England interest rate hike
The Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates in 2022, but analysts say that for the pound to rise higher in a sustained manner it will take an earlier hike, or more than one interest rate rises after 2022. Markets are hopeful that the economy will expand, and the labour market improve in order to see any substantial shift higher in the pound’s performance.
Short-term pound volatility
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech to the Jackson Hole economic conference on Friday will possibly offer few new hints about ending its quantitative easing programme. If it does show any clear indication that it intends to proceed with tapering the $120 billion in monthly purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, then this will have a negative impact on global economic growth, but it will be supportive of the Dollar. If the Fed indicates that they are not yet ready to proceed to reduce its massive asset purchases, as the delta variant continues to spread rapidly igniting further fears of an economic slowdown, then the US dollar will fall. As Goldman Sachs economists have said earlier this week, Powell will be cautious not to lock in a specific date for starting the taper and he would keep the possibility for starting in November open.
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